Zanzibar divided as Shein wins disputed re-election

Zanzibar's incumbent president Ali Mohamed Shein won a second term in office yesterday in a re-run of disputed elections boycotted by the main opposition Civic United Front (CUF) party, setting the islands on course for another political stalemate.

 

The Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) wasted no time in announcing the final results of the presidential poll rerun less than 24 hours after polling stations closed on Sunday across Unguja and Pemba.  At precisely 12 noon yesterday, ZEC chairman Jecha Salim Jecha declared Shein, who was contesting on the ruling CCM party’s ticket, the overwhelming winner with 91.4 per cent of the valid votes cast.

 

Shein's closest rival, Hamad Rashid Mohamed of the Alliance for Democratic Change (ADC) party, got a measly 3 per cent of the vote in the election whose official turnout was 67.9 per cent of the registered voters, according to ZEC.

 

Zanzibar's main opposition leader, Seif Sharif Hamad of CUF - who had told his supporters to boycott the election rerun altogether – was announced as having got 1.9 per cent of the total vote.

The results announced yesterday by ZEC have therefore effectively turned CUF, a traditionally mighty factor in Zanzibar politics, into opposition minnows - at least on paper.

 

Hamad, who opted to remain in Dar es Salaam while the elections were being conducted in Zanzibar, has lost four previous elections since 1995 by narrow margins, with his party regularly complaining of voting abuses.

 

Shein, who won the previous 2010 election with a razor-thin 50.1 per cent of the vote to literally pip Hamad at the post, told journalists on Sunday he felt he was on course for a landslide victory this time around.

 

In the event, according to ZEC chairman Jecha, Shein garnered some 299,982 votes out of 328,327 valid votes cast. A total of 341,865 votes were cast altogether, with 13,538 spoilt votes. Zanzibar's total number of registered voters stands at 503,580.

 

MAGUFULI SPEAKS OUT

 

President John Magufuli swiftly congratulated Shein for sealing a second term in office in Zanzibar after the final results were announced by ZEC.

Magufuli urged Zanzibaris to bury their hatchets, accept the results and rally behind their incumbent leader.

"My fellow countrymen (Tanzanians) in Zanzibar, the elections are over ... what is left now is for you to work together with your government to build Zanzibar," Magufuli said in a statement issued from Dar es Salaam.

Speaking after being declared president-elect in Zanzibar, Shein promised Zanzibaris that he was ready to serve them all despite the political differences among them.

 

“This is a very difficult job, but I pledge to serve and unite all Zanzibaris in our quest to bring tangible development to our country (islands),” he said.

 

He called on islanders to maintain peace and harmony and continue with their daily lives now that the election was over.

 

The declared runner-up, Hamad Rashid Mohamed of the ADC party, congratulated Shein on his victory and said Zanzibar needed to start its healing process after a deeply divisive electoral process.

“You should see how best you can cooperate with us (opposition) on how to resolve this sensitive political situation,” the ADC leader advised Shein in his congratulatory address delivered at the function where the presidential results were announced.

 

Meanwhile, CUF deputy secretary general Magdalena Sakaya again made it clear her party did not recognise the election re-run or its results.

 

Sakaya said CUF's top decision-making body would convene soon and announce the party's official position going forward now that the election is over and the results known.

 

WHAT NEXT FOR ZANZIBAR?

 

Despite CCM’s apparently comprehensive victory via Shein, Zanzibar appears to have been left at a political crossroads after none of the presidential candidates from the opposition camp managed to get the minimum share of votes required by the Isles constitution to form a government of national unity (GNU).

 

Under Zanzibar's constitution, a political party must win at least 10 per cent of the popular vote to form a grand coalition cabinet.

After he got 49.1 per cent of the vote in the 2010 elections, CUF's Seif Sharif Hamad was subsequently included in a coalition government with the ruling CCM, in which he has served as first vice-president of Zanzibar for the past five years-plus.

 

Asked by The Guardian about the current state of affairs after the latest election re-run results, CCM's deputy secretary general Vuai Ali Vuai said it was up to the president-elect to decide whether to continue with a coalition government system or not.

 

“No one can force President Shein to continue with the current set-up because CCM won with such an overwhelming majority. He will make up his own mind about how necessary it might be to restore the unity government,” Vuai said.

 

According to various political analysts, Shein could either form a CCM-only government to lead the deeply divided archipelago, or negotiate with CUF and other smaller opposition parties about forming another grand coalition government.

 

“The absence of CUF in any government of national unity will pull down efforts to unite Zanzibar,” said Eric Mwakibete, a Dar es Salaam-based political commentator.

 

A prominent political analyst from the University of Dar es Salaam, Dr Benson Banna, said although Shein indeed had the electoral mandate not to form a unity government if he chose so, he would be well-advised to go the other route and incorporate opposition figures in his administration.

 

“The president has powers to appoint any politician from any party in his ministerial cabinet to ensure an inclusive government, as all the opposition parties in Zanzibar now lack automatic qualifications, as things stand,” said Dr Banna.

 

Prof Mwesiga Baregu from St Augustine University of Tanzania (SAUT) warned that forming a unity government without CUF members could lead to political instability in the Isles.

 

“Zanzibar will not continue to enjoy its current peace and tranquility if the main opposition party CUF is not part of the government … CCM should go back to the negotiating table with CUF,” Baregu asserted.

 

DONORS CRITICISE  ELECTION RE-RUN

 

A group of 16 Western donor countries issued a statement yesterday criticising ZEC for going ahead with the controversial  election re-run  and urging President Magufuli to show “leadership” on Zanzibar.

“We reiterate our call on the government of Tanzania to exercise leadership in Zanzibar and to pursue a negotiated solution between parties, with a view to maintaining peace and unity," said the donors.

 

“We regret the Zanzibar Electoral Commission’s decision to hold a re-run of the 25 October 2015 election, without a mutually acceptable and negotiated solution to the current political impasse," they added.

 

In order to be credible, electoral processes must be inclusive and truly representative of the will of the people, said the statement issued by the envoys to Tanzania from Belgium, Canada, Denmark, the European Union, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

 

“We commend once again the population of Zanzibar for having exercised calm and restraint throughout this process, and call on all parties and their supporters to re-start the national reconciliation process to find an inclusive, sustainable and peaceful resolution,” the statement added.