Why I fear the worst for Zanzibar - Maalim Seif

 
Zanzibar's first vice president Seif Sharif Hamad warned yesterday that the islands risked violence after a re-run of disputed elections yesterday that were boycotted by the main opposition Civic United Front (CUF) party.

 

Hamad, who is the CUF secretary general, opted to remain in Dar es Salaam while presidential, House of Representatives and local council elections were conducted in Unguja and Pemba.

But he said whoever is declared winner of the rerun polls will lack real legitimacy to rule the archipelago.

 

Speaking at a news conference in Dar es Salaam, he dismissed the elections as a sham, saying they were merely meant to endorse a second term in power for incumbent Isles president Dr Ali Mohamed Shein.

 

“Zanzibar is likely to experience violence in the near future after enjoying peace and tranquility over the past five years,” Hamad said.

The original ballot on October 25 last year was annulled by the chairman of the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC), Jecha Salum Jecha, on grounds of fraud midway through the vote count. 

 

CUF claimed that it won that vote and had urged its supporters to boycott yesterday’s election rerun in a move that could mean a shoo-in for the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party.

 

Shein, who won the 2010 election with 50.1 per cent of the votes, said after casting his ballot in Zanzibar yesterday that he expected a “landslide victory” this time around.

 

Asked to comment on CUF’s decision not to take part in the polls rerun, the incumbent president said: “That’s their decision ... to boycott the elections. We have nothing to say.”

 

According to Shein, yesterday’s repeat elections went peacefully.

There were reports of tightened security around polling stations with a low turnout of voters especially in opposition strongholds. 

 

Although other smaller opposition parties also took part in the fresh vote, experience from the past few elections in Zanzibar since the return of multiparty politics has shown it’s always a tight two-horse race between CCM and CUF.

 

According to Hamad, Zanzibar’s violent past could come back to haunt it after the latest disputed elections.

 

While maintaining that the results will likely be rigged, the CUF leader also accused security forces of intimidation and arbitrary arrests of his party’s members in the run-up to the vote.

 

Zanzibar was rocked by post-election violence in 2001, including deadly clashes between protesters and police that resulted in the deaths of at least 35 people and left more than 600 injured. 

 

LOW VOTER TURNOUT IN OPPOSITION BASTION

In Pemba Island, a traditional CUF party stronghold, scores of polling stations reported very low voter turnouts with some election officials staying idle for the better part of the day.

 

But despite fears of violence during the voting exercise, the island appeared calm with security officers patrolling the streets, ostensibly to ensure things went smoothly.

 

According to ZEC’s elections director Salim Kassim Ali, Pemba had a total of 446 polling stations. Although most of those in South and North Pemba regions were open from around 7 am, some stayed empty of voters for hours on end.

 

Awadhi Juma, a restaurant owner in Pemba’s Mchomane area, said he boycotted the election because his preferred candidates from CUF were not taking part.

 

“I am not going to vote because my party (CUF) is not participating, so I have decided to open my shop as usual and continue with my daily activities without any pressure,” Juma said.

 

Mwinyi Omar, a resident of Chakechake area in Pemba, said he had decided to vote because it was his constitutional right to do so.

“Pemba is a safe haven for anyone ... I would like to take this opportunity to urge people to turn out in big numbers today and vote without fear of any violence,” he said earlier yesterday.

 

At a polling station at Wesha Primary School in Chakechake constituency, South Pemba region, electoral officials were seen sleeping on tables because voters trickling into the centre were few and far between.

 

According to the station’s electoral supervisor, Khamis Juma Mohamed, the turnout was negligible compared to last year’s nullified election.

 

“It seems the majority of voters have decided to stay home,” Mohamed noted.

 

In South Pemba, two presidential candidates from smaller opposition parties - Hamad Rashid Mohamed of the Alliance for Democratic Change (ADC) and Said Soud Said from the Alliance Farmers Party (AFP) - cast their ballots at the Tondooni polling station.

 

Interviewed by reporters afterwards, ADC candidate Hamad Rashid attributed the low turnout of voters at most of the polling stations to CUF’s decision to boycott the election.

 

“The situation speaks for itself as you have seen that most of the polling stations are virtually empty. But no one is forced to vote,” he said.

 

On his part, AFP presidential hopeful Said applauded the deployment of security forces across the Isles in large numbers as a move to ensure people were allowed to vote in peace for their respective leaders. “I have decided to come with my family members to vote. Zanzibar residents shouldn’t worry,” he asserted.

 

AU CALLS FOR PEACEFUL, CREDIBLE VOTE

In another development, the African Union (AU) Commission chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma called for a smooth, peaceful, transparent, and credible polls rerun in Zanzibar.

 

She also called on citizens and politicians to respect the election results, and when necessary, to use orderly means and lawful channels to seek redress in case of disputes.

 

It was only through violence-free elections that Africa could deepen the culture of democracy, Dlamini-Zuma said in a statement on Saturday.

 

PROSPECTS OF DONOR BACKLASH REMAIN LOW

According to Ahmed Salim, senior associate at consultancy Teneo Intelligence, the political opposition boycott and the non-presence of international observers at Sunday’s election rerun in Zanzibar would see the coronation of the incumbent president Ali Mohamed Shein for another five-year term.

 

But he warned that “this is unlikely to have a significant negative impact on Tanzania’s macro outlook and the government’s relations with its international donors.”

 

Since the October 2015 polls, the Zanzibar impasse is believed to have had a negligible effect on the political and economic stability of Tanzania. According to Salim, this is largely due to two reasons. 

 

“First, with no violence or political unrest having taken place in the four months since the annulment, President Magufuli has not had any sense of urgency to deal with the crisis,” he said in a note to clients.

 

“Secondly, the donor community, particularly the US and European Union (EU), have been divided over how to deal with the Zanzibar predicament.”

 

So far, the US government is the only major international partner that has delayed aid disbursements to Tanzania because of the Zanzibar issue. In December 2015, the US decided to defer Tanzania’s eligibility for the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) development programme, valued at $472 million, citing Zanzibar’s governance issues.

 

Though the funding is marginal and would have no direct impact on the budget, there are fears that it could constrain development projects in the energy sector. The US move was viewed as a political warning and the strongest reaction to the Zanzibar election annulment by Tanzania’s international partners.

 

In contrast, EU donors were divided over Zanzibar partly because of the promising start of President Magufuli’s four-month old Tanzanian administration in tackling corruption, government inefficiency and wastage.

 

“Reconciling Magufuli’s recent approach to corruption with his unwillingness to address the Zanzibar crisis has stifled the donors’ sense of urgency to solve it,” Salim said, adding:

 

“In fact, Magufuli has been very hands-off on matters related to the Union between the Mainland and the Isles, since he believes that the main constituents that will determine the CCM’s future electoral successes are on the mainland, not in Zanzibar.”

 

According to ZEC, final results of the election rerun were expected to be announced within three days of voting.